BTC Price Prediction: Analyzing Trends for 2025–2040

#BTC

• Technical Outlook: MACD bullish crossover and Bollinger Band squeeze suggest near-term upside potential.
• Market Sentiment: Balanced by institutional adoption vs. regulatory headwinds.
• Long-Term Trajectory: Scarcity and network effects could drive exponential growth post-2030.

BTC Price Prediction

BTC Technical Analysis: Current Trends and Future Projections

According to BTCC financial analyst John, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at 113,342.01 USDT, below its 20-day moving average (MA) of 117,339.07 USDT. The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover with values of 1120.8622 (MACD line), -787.4275 (signal line), and 1908.2897 (histogram). Bollinger Bands indicate a potential support level at 113,356.4184 (lower band), with resistance at 121,321.7216 (upper band). John suggests that while BTC is in a short-term dip, the MACD bullish crossover and mid-cycle momentum could signal a rebound towards the upper Bollinger Band in the coming weeks.

Market Sentiment: Bitcoin's Resilience Amid Regulatory and Macro Shifts

BTCC financial analyst John highlights mixed but cautiously optimistic market sentiment. Positive factors include Bitcoin's steady growth amid market maturity, El Salvador's continued pro-BTC policies, and the UK's upcoming retail crypto ETN approval. However, warnings from Arthur Hayes about a potential drop below $100K and legal cases like the Samourai Wallet founders' guilty plea introduce short-term uncertainty. John notes that long-term holder distribution and dormant wallet activity suggest profit-taking but don’t necessarily derail the bull run, especially with the "Satoshimeter" signaling further upside.

Factors Influencing BTC’s Price

Bitcoin Maintains Profitability for Majority of Holders Despite Recent Dip

Bitcoin's resilience shines as 91% of its circulating supply remains profitable, even after a 4.05% weekly decline. The cryptocurrency currently trades at $113,344, with analysts eyeing a potential surge to $150,000 if it breaches the $115,891 resistance level.

Market dynamics reveal a stark divide: 18.26 million BTC ($2.08 trillion) sits comfortably 'In the Money,' while 1.41 million BTC ($159.8 billion) languishes 'Out of the Money.' Trading volumes tell their own story, dropping 21.79% to $67.56 billion as investors tread cautiously amid macroeconomic headwinds.

The $116,000 threshold emerges as a critical battleground. A decisive break could reignite bullish momentum, though the market's current hesitation reflects broader uncertainty. Bitcoin's underlying strength remains evident - its high profitability ratio underscores enduring confidence in this market cycle.

Bitcoin Maintains Steady Growth Amid Market Maturity

Bitcoin's price trajectory continues to align with long-term growth models, showing no signs of speculative excess despite recent volatility. The cryptocurrency remains firmly above its historical trendline, with analysis suggesting further upside potential before entering overbought territory.

Short-term traders dominate recent selling activity, indicating newer market participants are driving price fluctuations while long-term holders remain steadfast. This dynamic points to an evolving market structure, one that's shedding its earlier speculative tendencies for more mature price discovery.

The Power Law divergence indicator places Bitcoin's current valuation in a growth zone well below historical bubble thresholds. Market observers note the absence of parabolic spikes characteristic of past cycles, suggesting this rally may have sustainable foundations.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Show Signs of Distribution, Yet Bull Run May Persist

Bitcoin's price dipped below $115,000 over the weekend, marking its lowest level since early July. This decline has sparked debate about the cryptocurrency's near-term potential, but on-chain data suggests the bull market may still have legs.

Crypto analyst Joao Wedson notes long-term holders are beginning to sell their BTC holdings in significant volumes, with approximately 50% of Bitcoin held in ETFs reportedly being offloaded. Despite this distribution, Wedson anticipates the BTC bull cycle could continue for at least two more months, with altcoins potentially extending their rally for three.

Key metrics like the Coin Days Destroyed Terminal Adjusted Metric indicate aged coins are moving after prolonged dormancy—a typical late-cycle behavior. While these signals flash warnings, Wedson argues the market hasn't yet reached its final top.

El Salvador Removes Term Limits, Cementing Bukele's Bitcoin Agenda

El Salvador's legislative assembly has eliminated presidential term limits in a 57-3 vote, enabling President Nayib Bukele to seek indefinite re-election. The constitutional reforms extend presidential terms to six years and delay the next election until 2027, consolidating Bukele's control over the nation's political and economic trajectory.

Since adopting bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, Bukele has positioned El Salvador as a bastion of financial sovereignty, defying international pressure. Despite IMF warnings, the government recently acquired eight additional BTC at an average price of $118,500, bringing reported holdings to 6,248 BTC worth over $740 million. Arkham Intelligence data shows a slightly higher balance of 6,255 BTC.

Transparency concerns persist. An IMF report suggests some recent Bitcoin activity involved internal wallet transfers rather than new market purchases. "Another day, another Bitcoin transferred from an undisclosed govt controlled wallet," noted John Dennehy of My First Bitcoin, questioning the narrative of continuous accumulation.

Arthur Hayes Warns of Bitcoin Drop Below $100K Post-NFP

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes predicts a potential Bitcoin downturn following weak U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data, despite maintaining long-term bullishness. The NFP report triggered a $1.1 trillion stock market wipeout and $172 million in Bitcoin long liquidations as prices fell below $114,000 after July's $120,000 peak.

Bitcoin demonstrated relative resilience compared to altcoins during the sell-off. Gold critic Peter Schiff seized the moment to challenge Bitcoin's safe-haven narrative, noting its 3% decline contrasted with gold's 2.2% gain amid the economic uncertainty.

Samourai Wallet Founders Plead Guilty in $100M Bitcoin Laundering Case

Samourai Wallet co-founders Keonne Rodriguez and William Lonergan Hill have reversed their earlier stance, pleading guilty to charges tied to their Bitcoin mixer service. The duo now faces up to 25 years in prison for conspiring to launder money and operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business.

Prosecutors allege the platform processed $2 billion in illicit transactions, including $100 million tied to darknet markets like Silk Road. Internal communications reportedly show the founders knowingly marketed Samourai's privacy features—Whirlpool and Ricochet—for obfuscating criminal transactions.

The guilty plea marks a dramatic shift after months of legal maneuvering, including failed attempts to dismiss the case. The DOJ's aggressive stance signals heightened scrutiny of privacy-focused crypto tools.

Bitcoin Torture Suspect Released on $1M Bail Amid Rising Crypto-Related Crimes

A New York man accused of torturing an Italian millionaire over a $100 million Bitcoin ransom has been freed on $1 million bail after two months at Rikers Island. John Woeltz, 37, walked out of custody last week following a Manhattan judge's decision, while his alleged accomplice William Duplessie remains detained. Both have pleaded not guilty to charges of kidnapping and brutalizing crypto trader Michael Carturan in what defense attorneys bizarrely compared to "fraternity hazing."

The case highlights the darkening landscape of cryptocurrency-related crime, where nine-figure digital asset stakes now motivate increasingly violent schemes. Woeltz, himself a crypto trader, avoided commenting on the allegations as he left court. The victim reportedly endured torture methods resembling initiation rituals before the assailants fled with undisclosed amounts of Bitcoin.

Dormant Bitcoin Wallets from 2009 Awaken, Sparking Market Speculation

Five Bitcoin wallets inactive since 2009 suddenly transferred 250 BTC (approximately $30 million) on July 31, 2025. The coins were originally mined on April 26, 2010, during Bitcoin's earliest days—predating the conclusion of the so-called 'Patoshi pattern,' a mining sequence often associated with Bitcoin's creator.

Market observers tracked the movement closely, though none of the funds have yet reached major exchanges. The lack of immediate sell-side pressure has muted price impact, but traders remain wary of potential bulk transfers to exchanges like Binance or Coinbase.

The reactivation of pre-Patoshi-era coins carries symbolic weight. Such movements historically trigger volatility, even when the amounts are dwarfed by Bitcoin's 19-million-coin circulating supply. Blockchain analysts continue monitoring recipient addresses for signs of liquidation intent.

UK to Lift Retail Ban on Crypto ETNs Starting October 2025

The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) will end its four-year prohibition on retail access to Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Notes (ETNs) on October 8, 2025. The MOVE signals growing institutional acceptance of crypto assets, though derivatives remain restricted.

Since January 2021, only professional investors could trade crypto ETNs through regulated exchanges like Cboe and the London Stock Exchange. The FCA's reversal reflects crypto's maturation into mainstream finance. "The market has evolved," said David Geale, the FCA's Executive Director of Payments and Digital Finance. "Products have become more understood."

Retail investors won't receive protection under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme. The decision aligns with the UK's push for comprehensive crypto regulation by 2026.

Bitcoin's Mid-Cycle Momentum: Satoshimeter Signals More Upside Ahead

Bitcoin's rally past $120,000 has sparked debate about its position in the current market cycle. On-chain data from the Satoshimeter indicator suggests the cryptocurrency remains in a mid-phase, historically a period of sustained growth before peak euphoria.

Developed by analyst Stockmoney Lizard, the tool tracks cyclical patterns using blockchain metrics. Current readings show Bitcoin hasn't yet entered the danger zones that preceded previous market tops. The asset's climb from $100,000 to record highs appears to mirror intermediate stages seen in prior bull runs.

Historical patterns reveal Satoshimeter values around 1.6 typically mark bear market bottoms, as occurred in 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2022. The absence of extreme upper-range readings now suggests room for further appreciation.

Bitcoin Pumps in August After Halving—Is $150K Coming?

Bitcoin exhibits a compelling historical pattern: August rallies in post-halving years have consistently preceded major bull markets. In 2013, 2017, and 2021, the cryptocurrency surged during this month, setting the stage for extended upward trajectories.

The current cycle fuels speculation of a repeat performance. Analysts point to Bitcoin's resilience and growing institutional adoption as catalysts for a potential breakout. A $150,000 price target appears increasingly plausible if historical momentum holds.

BTC Price Predictions: 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040 Forecasts

John projects BTC could reach $150K by late 2025 if August’s post-halving rally sustains. By 2030, scaling solutions and ETF inflows may push prices to $500K. Long-term, he emphasizes Bitcoin’s fixed supply and growing use cases as catalysts for multi-million-dollar valuations by 2040, though volatility remains likely.